Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs of organization.
Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually becoming better defined.
If this development trend continues, a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to 25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today.
Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.
For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.